The Effects of Productivity Shocks,Financial Shocks,and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises

What kind of shock affects exchange rate dynamics? How much of an effect does the monetary policy have on exchange rates? To answer these questions empirically based on the currency crisis model, I use panel data on 51 emerging countries from 1980 to 2011, identify shocks, and apply instrumental variable methods. I found that both productivity shocks and shocks to a country’s risk premium affect exchange rates and a 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate is associated with a 1 percentage point appreciation of domestic currency. I further apply this method to Asian and Latin-American crises.     

Markets for information: Of inefficient firewalls and efficient monopolies

In this paper we study market environments where information is costly to acquire and is also useful to potential competitors. Agents may sell, or buy, reports over the information acquired and choose their trades in the market on the basis of what they learnt. Reports are unverifiable – cheap talk messages – hence the quality of the information transmitted depends on the conflicts of interest faced by the senders. We find that, when information has a prevalent horizontal differentiation component, in equilibrium information is acquired when its costs are not too high and in that case it is also sold, though reports are typically noisy. The market for information is in most cases a monopoly, and there is underinvestment in information acquisition. We also show that regulatory interventions, in the form of firewalls, only make the inefficiency worse. Efficiency can be attained with a monopolist selling differentiated information, provided entry is blocked.     

Tax avoidance and ex ante cost of capital

This study examines the association between tax avoidance and ex ante cost of equity capital. Based on prior research, we develop two proxies for investors’ expectations of tax avoidance and explore whether deviations from those expectations result in higher ex ante cost of equity capital. We find that the ex ante cost of equity capital increases with tax avoidance that is either below or above investor expectations and that the increase is larger for tax avoidance that exceeds investors’ expectations. We then examine whether firms that alter their future tax avoidance exhibit a lowering of their ex ante cost of equity capital and find that tax avoidance decreases (increases) from the prior year for firms that were above (below) investors’ expectations in the prior year. These results are consistent with the trade‐off suggested by the Scholes and Wolfson framework and reinforce the notion that balancing tax benefits and non‐tax costs is an important feature of firms’ tax planning.     

商业银行存款保险制度在我国的发展前景

从当前国内外存款保险制度理论研究现状入手,基于我国特殊国情,探讨我国实行存款保险制度的现实意义、难点及途径.提出我国应充分发挥优势,博采众长,探索建设中国特色存款保险制度.     

Monetary policy in open economies: Practical perspectives for pragmatic central bankers

This paper reviews and interprets some of the key policy implications that flow from a class of DSGE models for optimal monetary policy in the open economy. The framework suggests that good macroeconomic outcomes in open economies are possible by focusing inflation targeting that is implemented by a Taylor type rule, a rule that in equilibrium is reflected in the exchange rate as an asset price. Optimal monetary policy will not be able deliver a stationary (‘stable’) nominal exchange rate – let alone a fixed exchange rate or one that remains inside a target zone – because, absent a commitment device, optimal monetary can’t deliver a stationary domestic price level. Another feature in the data for inflation targeting countries that is consistent with monetary policy via Taylor type rule is that it will tend push the nominal exchange rate in the opposite direction from PPP in response to an ‘inflation’ shock—the ‘bad news god news’ result of Clarida and Waldman (2008. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate. In: John Campbell, (Ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press), Clarida and Waldman (2014. Bad News About Inflation is Good News for the Nominal Exchange Rate Under Optimal Monetary Policy: DSGE Theory and a Decade of Empirical Evidence). This is so even though in the long run of these models the nominal exchange rate must in expectation obey PPP.     

Non-compensation-related consultant service and CEO compensation

This study examines how consultants’ non-compensation-related consulting service (NCS) affects the contractual usefulness of accounting and stock information in executive compensation, as reflected in pay-performance sensitivity. The hypothesis is based on anecdotal evidence suggesting that consultants’ provision of NCS is likely to adversely affect the quality of CEO compensation plans. We investigate whether the consultants providing NCS are involved in potential conflicts of interest. The results show that CEO pay is higher in companies where consultants provide NCS and have a higher NCS fee ratio. The pay-performance sensitivity in CEO compensation decreases when consultants engage in NCS. The overall results are consistent with NCS representing a conflict of interest and compromising the quality of compensation committees.     

Shanxi Merchants’ Multilevel Financial System in Ming and Qing Dynasties,China

In the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1911), China saw rapid development in industrial and commercial sectors. Over this period, a group of merchants originating from the inland province of Shanxi gradually built a multilevel financial system and became leaders in China’s banking sector. The system of financial institutions they established (pawnshops, seal shops, money shops, loan banks, and draft banks) each had a unique business model, with specific target client group and carefully designed risk management. They were also interconnected to allow for flexible capital flows, contributing to the fast economic growth in this period. Nevertheless, the traditional system also had limitations, leading to its replacement by modern banks eventually.     

How Islamic are Islamic banks? A non-linear assessment of Islamic rate – conventional rate relations

In this paper, we perform a non-linear assessment of Islamic rate – conventional rate relations for the case of Malaysia. Using monthly data covering the period January 1999 to November 2016, we find strong evidence supporting non-linear reactions of the Islamic investment rates to conventional rates in the long run and/or short-run for all matched maturities. More precisely, the Islamic investment rates exhibit faster upward movement (slower downward movement) in responses to conventional deposit rate increases (decreases). The asymmetric pricing behaviour of Islamic banks however tends to weaken as maturity lengthens. Accordingly, we infer that Islamic banks do not rigidly peg their investment deposit rates to conventional deposit rates as some have claimed in questioning the Islamicity of Islamic banks.     

Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds

This paper studies the impact of interest rate news surprises on Islamic and conventional stock and bond indices, using a dataset which covers interest rate announcements and forecasts, as well as stock and bond indices in three Islamic and eight non-Islamic countris. We find that interest rate surprises tend to have a smaller impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic than conventional bonds because Islamic bonds are structured to avoid explicit interest rates. However, interest rate surprises have about the same or bigger impact on the returns and volatility of Islamic relative to conventional stocks, despite the low amounts of cash and debt holdings of firms comprising Islamic stock indices.     

Determinants of workers’ remittances: An empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing Asian economies

We explore the key motives of migrant workers’ remittances from abroad for 11 major Asian migrant‐sending countries. Using panel regressions, we find that relative higher growth rate, interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host, investment, financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into Asia, along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices. With incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances, we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit. Therefore, we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the Asian economies.